Top Pair - An Example

I've been playing some more, finishing 5th/72 in the PSO league, and owning on both Poker Rewards and Party Poker in ring games. I'm on a nice run, with most of my good hands holding in large pots, and losing in small pots. I'm playing mostly Shorthanded No Limit 100$, with blinds of .5/1, and at this level, players are usually not clueless, but they still have a lot of exploitable flaws.

I talked about overplaying Top Pair recently, in a much appreciated post called Top Pair is a Shovel. Tonight, I just got the perfect example of what I'm talking about. By overplaying his hand, my opponent lost his whole stack to me. Had he read that post, I believe he could have saved about 75$.

Let's proceed directly to the hand history (I removed some obvious or useless parts for the sake of succinctness):

Seat 4: AZ_Golf_Pro ( $117.40 )
Seat 5: moon1 ( $88.55 )
Seat 3: MathP ( $96 )
cavs401 posts small blind [$0.50].
MathP posts big blind [$1].
Dealt to MathP [ Td 9d ]
AZ_Golf_Pro raises [$3].
moon1 calls [$3].
SILBETS folds.
cavs401 folds.
MathP calls [$2].

He made a weak raise, and I have a good drawing hand. With one caller already, I like to call here, even though I'm out of position.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, Jh, 8c ]

I hit the flop, and I hit it hard. A straight is much easier to conceal than a flush, I'm first to talk, so a check won't look suspicious, and I'm likely to get paid. There's no flush draw out there, so even if I give a free card, I should be fine. The worst card for me is now a 9 or a T, making the straight too obvious.

MathP checks.
AZ_Golf_Pro bets [$7].
moon1 folds.
MathP calls [$7].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]
MathP checks.
AZ_Golf_Pro bets [$18].

The turn put a flush draw out there, but he certainly didn't play it like he had a flush draw. The goal of my raise now is simply to pave the way for my all-in, which is why I keep it small.

MathP raises [$40].
AZ_Golf_Pro calls [$22].
** Dealing River ** [ 6s ]
MathP is all-In [$46]
AZ_Golf_Pro calls [$46].
MathP shows [ Td, 9d ] a straight, seven to jack.
AZ_Golf_Pro shows [ Ah, Js ] a pair of jacks.
MathP wins $193.50 from the main pot with a straight, seven to jack.

Even though I didn't like the spade, as he might have me beat now, I'm not going to fold my straight, so I might as well move all-in. With a pot of already 100$, my 46$ looks just like a regular bet. If he has anything at all, and he sure played like he liked his hand, he will call. He took a while before calling, but finally did, and paid me off.

As soon as I raised on the turn, he should have known he was beat. But my raise was so small that he couldn't really fold his top pair. And That, my friend, is the danger of top pair. It's too good to lay it down, but weak enough that against any opposition, you are likely behind. My river raise should have told him he was beat, but I had been raising a lot, and he might think I'm bluffing.

And that's the funny thing about the way I play. I raise a lot, so people think that I'm often bluffing. And I am. But on small pots. Orphan pots. Those pots no one seems to want to fight for. When it comes down to big pots, I usually have the goods, yet people call me anyway. If I know I'll face a difficult decision, I'll keep the pot small. Now, let's just hope they won't read this, as I sure don't want them playing any better!

Chokage: GSOP Shorthanded NL event

Grand Series of Poker - Event 1
Buy-in: 475+25
Game: 5-handed No Limit Texas Hold'em
PrizePool: 300 000$
Result: 107th / 580

It took 4h30 to finally bust out of this tournament. There was a nice overlay too, as they needed about 630 players to cover the guaranteed prizepool. The field was larger than I expected, with 580 entrants, but the structure was great, so I wasn't too worried. As long as I wouldn't get unlucky, I'd make the money. Well, obviously, I got unlucky, and I couldn't recover.

Early in the tournament, I played my game. Shorthanded NL is my favorite game, and with blinds of 25/25 and 5000 chips, I had plenty of room to manoeuvre. My stack steadily grew, to about 8k, while the average was trailing around 6k. I was then moved to a new table, so I had to observe all the players again.

Before I could get a clear picture, I got KK on the button, and I had to play it. With blinds of 50/100, the cutoff raised to 350. With smaller stacks, I'd just call here, but our pockets were deep, so a raise was mandatory. I made it 850 to go, a little over 10% of my stack. To my surprise, the big blind cold-called. Usually, that means he has either Aces, and he plays them in a weird way, or he has a low pocket pair, and he wants to flop a set and bust me. The cutoff quickly folded, and we saw a QJ6 flop. The big blind checked, and I fired off 1000. The big blind just called, which smelled like a trap, or AK/AQ. I thought he might have aces or jacks. The turn came another jack, and the big blind bet 600. I was almost certain I was beat at this point, but I couldn't fold for 600 on a 4000 pot. I called, a blank came on the river, and he bet 900, another "please call me" bet, but still small enough that I had to call, in case he had just a queen. He turned over... J7 offsuit. Yep. He called 750 more with J7o, and then 1000 with only middle pair and a crappy kicker. And then he could have taken way more chips, but he played it in a way to minimize my losses, and for that I am thankful.

After that hand, I was standing around 4k, below the average of nearly 7k. The same guy, let's affectionately call him "Mr. Sucker", hit a runner-runner flush against me, and I was down to 3k. From that point on, it was really tough, as I didn't have enough to play a real game. I called a few bluff against Mr Sucker, and I was back up to 5k. Mr. Sucker then busted a poor guy. The flop was 267, and the poor guy moved all-in with Queens. Mr Sucker insta-called, in a very Hellmuthesque way, with .... 9-2 of heart. Of course, the turn and river were both hearts, giving Mr Sucker a flush. Sadly, Mr Sucker's luck ran out, and some other guy at the table busted him. All my hopes of getting my chips back died...

Moved to another table, I struggled between 5k and 8k for a while. One hour.. two hours... I didn't get any hand in position. The blinds finally reached a point where I couldn't wait anymore. Some guy bet 1000 on my big blind of 400. The small blind called, and I made a no-brainer move with AKo, and re-raised all-in. They both folded, and I was up to 8k. A few hands passed... I finally woke up with a pocket pair of sevens when the blinds were at 300/600 and I only had 6k left. I made a no-brainer move again, and moved all-in. Unfortunately, the chip leader woke up with QQ, and I was out.

Quite a disappointing way to go out, as there were 70 paid places, and I died 107th. But what really killed me was that bad beat against Mr Sucker earlier. If my hand had held, which it would do 90% of the time on the turn, I would have been around 11k, maybe more if he elected to call. From there on, I could have kept playing, stealing, dancing around, with the whole spectrum of deadly weapons at my disposal. Instead, I was restrained to the basic weapons: Playing quality hands, stealing in position, and moving all-in when I hit. No more guns or knives, not even a shovel. I was collateral damage between the sharks battling it out with donkeys.

All in all, it was still a lot of fun. Yesterday's freeroll was a blast, and today, I really felt like I knew what I was doing. I'm having fun in tournaments again, and that usually indicates a bright future. I also like tournaments because they force me to play. I can't find some lame excuse to stop playing after 90 minutes, and that's going to help me. If I really played full-time, I'd be filthy rich by now!

Best Freeroll Ever

I have not been playing tournaments much lately, as I was running short on luck, which then made me play pretty badly. But tonight I played in a 10k freeroll on Poker Source Online, and I did pretty well. I was focused, and I wasn't playing any other table.

My hands were really cold at the beginning of the tournament. I barely ever played a hand, until I woke up with Aces, and I busted a calling station, putting me at a cool 2500 chips. I didn't get much for a few more hands, and I missed a good draw, which put me down to about 1200 chips, way below average. At that point, I thought I was pretty much dead. It would take a miracle to get me out of there, and for the first time in a while, I got it.

I moved in with AJs, and someone called with Jacks. I spiked an Ace on the flop, and I had doubled up. I got a great rush of cards, and played them fairly well, and before I knew it, I was up to 12k. From there on, it went pretty smoothly. I stole a few blinds, bluffed my share of pots, and stood around 15k for a while. I then lost an all-in against a short stack, and didn't play much for a few rounds.

I was down around 6k, and I couldn't make a move, as there were 37 players left, and prizes started at 36. When the last one finally died, I stole a few pots, and busted a few guys. I was up to 30k. When we were about 11 players left, I got a great rush again, and stole my fair share of blinds, putting me up to 120k. I was the chip leader by far at that point, with the closest player standing at 59 000. I tried to bust the 9th player, but my A9o lost to his J8o. There was a lot of action going on, and I had no hand to be part of it. For example, we saw a four way all-in. The hands were: AA vs AK vs KJ vs QQ, but only one player busted.

As people were tightening up again, waiting for others to bust, I stole some more blinds, climbing back up to 125k. At that point we were only 5 left. I tried to steal a short stack's blinds with Q9o, but he turned out to be Lifesagrind, holding AQo. Obviously, he called and doubled up. I lost another hand againsts him when he moved all-in, and I had bottom pair. It might have been a bluff, but I don't think it was worth 2/3 of my stack to find out.

Down to three players, I was the shortest stack with about 40 000, the 2nd had around 60k, and the first had a huge 280k. I moved all-in every three hands or so, with crap like Q8o, Q6o, K5o and 34o. No one was calling. Meanwhile, Lifesagrind woke up with a good hand doubled up. Chip count was now around 55 000 for me, 120 000 and 210 000. I moved all-in again, as usual, with A4o, my best hand so far. However, the chip leader woke up with a pocket pair of nines, and I was out. Third place still paid 1110$, which I'm going to put to good use Monday.

I'll use almost half of that money to buy into the 475+25 Shorthanded No Limit Hold'em tournament, with a guaranteed prizepool of 300k$. The structure is amazing, with a starting stack of 5000 chips, and rounds of 30 minutes. It starts at 4pm, and I'd expect it to run at least six hours, probably closer to eight. I like my chances here, as Shorthanded NL is my speciality. If I can get half the luck I had tonight, I should bring back a nice little prize.

I'll post an update here every hour or so. Wish me luck!

Top Pair is a Shovel

Every poker player has flaws in his game. Great players have only a few, and are usually aware of them, while your average donkey's game is a flaw in itself. Exploiting someone's weaknesses is how you make money at the poker table. Some flaws are very widespread, and I think that overplaying top pair is one of these.

Everyone can play a fullhouse well. You usually get as much money in as you can, and hope that someone follows. Playing a flush draw, and then getting paid when you hit, is already harder but still very straightforward. It is also quite easy to play when you hit absolutely nothing. You just throw your garbage away, cutting your losses. But when you stand right in the middle, it gets very tricky.

Top pair and middle pair win more showdowns than any other poker hand. You can't just throw these hands away, and wait for something bigger. Logic dictates that top pair should have some value. But for some players, folding these hands might actually improve their game. What they fail to realize is that top pair is good only as long as you have no opposition. As soon as your opponent starts giving action, you're most likely behind.

A lot of people believe that the correct way to play top pair is to raise as soon as possible, to define their hand. Maybe that's true in Limit Hold'Em, but it certainly isn't in No Limit. When you raise on the flop, you are basically throwing away the value of your hand. If the bettor was indeed weak, he will fold. You could have any two cards, and it doesn't matter. Raising here is a very aggressive, bold move, on the verge of a pure bluff.

If your opponent is strong, it gets more money into his pot, and your decision is just as hard if he re-raises you. He could have top pair with a worse kicker, or middle pair with some draw, or simply a strong draw. Or most likely, a hand way ahead of you, against which you could have almost any two cards, as they most likely won't matter anyway. Moreover, if your opponent senses weakness in your raise, he could take the pot away from you right there. You have a very tough decision, as it involves two opposite actions. Calling when you are behind is a huge mistake. Folding when you are ahead is even worse.

Now, let's say that you just call instead of raising. You show weakness there. What does that accomplish? Two very important things. First, it might induce a weaker hand to bet again. That's very good for you. Second, if your opponent has a very good hand, such as two pairs or three of a kind, he will most likely bet much less, as he wants to extract some money from you, but you seem weak. Whatever he has, your play is basically the same: call if he bets, bet otherwise.

I like to keep it simple. I like to be in a spot in which your move is the same against most hands your opponent might hold. If you flop a straight on a weak board, you know that you are ahead. Whatever your opponent holds, you want to make him pay. If he has a good draw, make sure he doesn't have the correct odds to call. If he has a good hand, make the ride as expensive as you can. But top pair is not a straight. It is (one of) the weakest playable hand. It's a knife in a brawl. Sure, that unarmed drunken bastard will run away, but you could most likely beat him anyway. And that guy with the gun? He's not going anywhere. Your chances of getting out of it alive would actually be higher if you were unarmed.

You need to play it more like a shovel. Against the drunken sob, your shovel is good enough. It's even better, as he might not see the real power of such a wonderful weapon, and try to fight you anyway. The most likely result is a quick and very painful hit to his delicate jaw. However, a shovel doesn't scream "I'm here to fight" like a knife does. That guy with the gun might let you get out of there alive. And, I don't know about you, but staying alive is an activity I enjoy very much.

So, what's the point of this? I guess it's a poker lesson about how you should see top pair to make the best of it. I guess it could also be an homage to shovels, as the ultimate concealed weapon. No one screams "Police!!" when they see a guy with a shovel on the street. So just be the guy with the shovel.

Drunken Style

A few days ago, I broke one of my top rules for playing poker: I played under the influence of alcohol. I wasn't completly drunk, but you know you aren't quite sober when your friends tell you to stop shouting whenever you say something. I always lost money when I played in such a less-than-optimal condition, and surely this would be no exception.

And boy was I wrong. I got a mad rush of cards, and I always got paid off. I also stone-cold bluffed a few times. Everything I did seemed to work perfectly. I won over 325 big blinds in a little less than two hours, playing only two tables. Rushes like that don't come all that often.

I thought about it for a while, as clearly, playing semi-drunk wasn't all that bad. I think I figured out why this time was different. In all these other sessions, it wasn't really the alcohol that made me lose money. As a few people mentionned, three or four drinks puts me at my best. No, I think it was mostly because I wasn't really confident, most likely down, and the night had not been any better. And that's a recipe for disaster at a poker table. You still hope you're going to win, and it might happen. But it's not enough.

What was differerent this time is that I was fricking happy. The day had been great, as it was the first beer-on-a-terrace of the year with a bunch of friends. I didn't have to drive, so I had nothing to worry about. When I got back, I still felt great. I opened up a bottle of Bawls (I love that stuff), and I fired up a few tables. And when you feel great at a poker table, you know you're going to win. And you win big.

Now, it might be only a coincidence, but I don't believe too much in coincidences. Negreanu wrote a serie of articles about how a bad relationship ruined his poker income for a while, and I totally agree with him. If your mind is on something else, and you lack the confidence required to play adequatly, you're going to choke. I've heard stories like these too many times to ignore them now. I had my biggest downswings in last november and december, and those who know me probably realised I was far from exalted at the time. These days I'm making a killing at the tables, even when I drink, and I always have a smile on my face.

Sure, some might say that smile comes from the fun of overcoming a challenge and winning. But I like to think it works the other way around, too. It seems to work that way in pretty much any competition, while would poker be any different?

Theory of Chokage

Reactions to my last post were mixed, to say the least. Some people said it was pretty easy stuff, while others are still struggling with starting hands and pot odds. It is very hard to find something that will entertain both the good players, and the beginners. But I thought about it for a while, and I think I found a solution. Chokage.

I'm not about to expose a deliciously pathetic story here. I'll talk about the Theory behind Chokage. You see, parallels between poker and life come by the dozens, especially when it comes to choking. Now that I know how to play poker, hopefully I'll stop choking. Or choke less. Or choke faster. As long as it's not slowly and painfully anymore.

Anyway, every good poker player knows that you need to define your hand, to know where you stand. Swimming in murky waters is the best way to lose it all. If you know where you are, every decision becomes simple and easy. If you never try to find out where you stand at, by the time you find out (the showdown), it will be too late.

A chokage is based on the same principle. As an amazing choker myself, I found a few patterns between different chokages. It mostly comes down to this: You don't know what to believe. Is she on to me? Is she dreaming about me? Is she crying herself to sleep wondering why no one likes her? Or would she dropkick me in the nuts if I dared to touch her? There's no easy way to find out, but if you never know where you stand, by the time you find out, it will usually be too late.

In poker, there is only one way to find out, and it is to bet or raise. You throw in more money, basically asking: "Tell me a little more about your hand, please". In chokage, you don't have to throw in more money. Although it *might* work, it is usually frowned upon, for some reason. All you have to do is simply ask: "Tell me a little more about yourself, please". You have to make a move. Otherwise you might waste a lot of time, only to find out that she's not interested, or that she's been interested all along, and you've been choking all this time. Just hope that someone else has not already taken the spot.

That's all there is to it, really. Sure, you might win by just checking and calling, just like you might win if you wait for girls to basically rape you. But let's just say it's not the best way. Trust me on this one.

To good poker players, I hope this might help you avoid a chokage. To Casa Novas, I hope that this might help you at the poker table. To anyone claiming to be great at both, you're in denial, otherwise, why the hell would you be wasting your time reading this blog? Oh, right... the shovel...

Analysing a hand

Someone told me to update this weblog more often, or at least implied that I barely ever update it, without any consideration to the fact that it's barely one week old. Or the fact that it's to be expected from a choker to choke to update his blog.

But don't worry, loyal readers, I'll give you enough today to chew on for a while, even though I didn't even know that people read this stuff. I guess they really can't wait to deliver those shovel hits to my feeble facial structure. I can't blame them though, I'd want to do it too, but I somehow doubt in my ability to deliver a good second hit.

So many words, yet so little content. Don't worry, you'll get used to it. Major chokages don't happen all that often so, unfortunately for you, I can't entertain you with one of these legendary stories today. Instead, I'll talk about poker.

Someone came to me for advice about a tournament situation recently. While that situation was rather boring, the way to analyze a hand could use some explanation. I guess that you can skip this post if you don't know if a straight beats a flush, as I do not use the words "orange juice" a single time in the remaining paragraphs. All you would find here are destroyed brain cells and aneurisms.

When faced with a decision, most people simply look at their hand, and call if it's good. Some people go as far as evaluating the board, and placing their opponent on a hand. If they can beat it, they call. While that's an improvement, it's still not enough.

The first thing you should do is figure out the odds offered by the pot. If your opponent bets 1000 into a 3000 pot, you have pot odds of 4:1 (his 1000 goes into the pot, for a total of 4000, and it costs you 1000 to call, so 4:1). With odds of 4:1, if you win once, and lose four times, you will break even. Win more often than that, and you will show a profit. Sometimes, the odds offered are so great (10:1), that you don't even need to think further, and you can call with almost any two cards.

If it's not that clear, you need to evaluate your chances of winning. If you need to hit a flush to win, it's easy to figure out. It gets a lot more complex if your hand is good but not great, and your opponent could have many hands: some that beat you, some that are almost dead, and some that could easily outdraw you. You must make an educated guess about the likeliness that he is holding each of these group of hands. With that guess and an approximation of your chances of winning in each case, you can know how likely you are to win.

Now you have a guess about your chances of winning, and the odds offered by the pot. If you think you'll win about once in four, you need odds of 3:1 to call. If you or your opponent is all-in, your job is done. If you both have more chips, it gets a lot more complex. But I won't go into that today. Instead, I'll show an example of an analysis I did a few days ago, that involved an all-in move.

Our Hero holds KK, and his opponent moved all-in for 2000 into a 5000 pot. The board shows 6c, Tc, 3d, 5h. The way the hand played, it seems likely that his opponent can beat a pair of kings with a set, and that Hero will be almost dead if he loses this hand.

It costs you 2000 to try to win 7000, which are irresistible odds with an overpair. Here's how I see it:

Bluff - Your opponent could be bluffing here. In MTTs, people bluff a lot, but let's be conservative and say 10%. We beat this almost everytime. Win 10%
Top pair - AT is possible and very likely. I'd say at least 20%. We beat this 9 times out of 10. Win 18%.
Ac5c or Ac3c- With a draw at the nut flush and a pair, he is in good shape. But these are two specific hands, so 10% seems good. We beat this two thirds of the time. Win 7%.
A set (TT, 66, 55 or 33) - Let's say he will have a set otherwise, which would be 60%. That's higher than I really think it is, but I like to be conservative. We beat this once in twenty. Win 3%.

With these conservative numbers, here's our expected win rate
Win: 18 + 10 + 7 + 3 = 38%

We will win over one third of the time, meaning we are about a 2:1 underdog, and the pot odds offered are 3.5:1. We would need odds of 2:1 to break even, making this a profitable call.

It doesn't matter that you will often lose the pot. You play to make money, and the best move for that is to call. What really put you in a tough spot is getting here in the first place!

As you can see, there's a lot to think about. You might want to go over that a few times, assuming you do not like your poor brain very much. Of course, I'd be lying if I told you I can do all these maths in my head in the thirty seconds I have to make a move in an online game. I keep it way more simple. But the closer you can get to this kind of analysis, the better you will fare in a tournament.

Now, faithful fans, go on, and realize how short 30 seconds is, or how very impatient people are in a live game!

Montreal Poker Open

UPDATE: It turned out the tournament was a total crapshoot. There were 800 players in the event, with rebuys and add-ons. Blinds would double up every 15 minutes, so you had to be all-in every orbit. I went all-in with A5s once, then with A4s and I ran into Aces.

Today is the Montreal Poker Open, a NL Hold'em tournament with the final table played in Vegas, and the winner getting a spot into the WSOP. It starts at 19h30, and should last a few hours.

While MTTs are not my specialty, my live game is better than ever, and I've worked a new look that should help me in this tournament. As you can see, this makes me look like a jerk who probably thinks he has huge cojones. I also happen to look devastatingly handsome, and everyone should come see how good I look.

We'll most likely have live coverage of the event on Poker Source Online. Watch the forums under Canadian Poker Tour (CPT). I'll probably come back with a major chokage story, which, hopefully, did not happen at the table.

Choking:

1. To have difficulty in breathing, swallowing, or speaking.
2. To become blocked up or obstructed.
3. To fail to perform effectively because of nervous agitation or tension.

I choke a lot. No one bothers to count my chokages anymore. If you, too, are a chronic choker, you might find something here.

When I'm not talking about a major chokage, these posts will be mainly about poker, because I play a lot these days.

I promise I'll never post any "Today I woke up and had a glass of orange juice, and then I watched a boring TV program for a few minutes" kind of post. If I do, please drive over here, have me delete this blog, and then hit me violently in the face with a shovel. Twice.